Nifty 10-11-2016 EOD analysis

Nifty seems to have completed two segments of up move from the low reached on Wednesday morning. This can be viewed as either a-b-c or 1-2-(i)-? according to Elliott wave analysis.

Following is the 5 min chart of Nifty with Elliott Wave labels.

8521  8497 … is 38%-50% retrace of the last rise from …… 8396 to 8598
80% is – 8436
If strength to return again, it should be around 8521  8497
Weakness gets confirmed Below 8497 OR 8436

Nifty hourly chart 08-11-2016

USP - United Spirits Limited seems to be in the final leg of the 5 wave down move

USL (earlier noted here) completed 4th wave up move and is in its 5th wave of the down move. This 5 waves may be noted as wave 'A' of the larger correction. This may find support near 1985-1800 range. This could be a very good range to buy this for the corrective move up in the form of wave 'B'. Further it may correct the entire down move from 4082 which started from March 2015 taking over 20 months. This corrective move may go towards 2800 to 3300 taking over 1 to 2 years.

USP Elliott Wave on a daily chart:

Nifty 07-11-2016

Daily Nifty chart

It appears like A,B of the correction from the peak 8963 is complete. B was a flat correction. This signifies that the impending C is going to be a strong down move. Breaking down the C shows that it has completed 1&2 and 3 is in progress, or it is almost done at the low of Friday with the move between 138.2% 161.8% 8376. Now we can expect the 4th wave to move up. It should not break the low of the 1st wave at 8550.25 which will invalidate this wave count.

Further on 4th wave can take anywhere between 3 -4 days to complete. (is that a coincident that 3 days from now is wednesday when the US election results are out?) Then a further dip for the completion of 5th wave may be on cards.

--<<8321-8342 << 8502 >> 8545-8555 >> 8604++

C wave in the daily chart:

Nifty - Piercing Pattern

Nifty on 17th October 2016 at 15:30 has formed a piercing pattern. Following this on 18th Nifty opened gap up, and continued upward journey.

This continued for 9 consecutive candles of positive closing. At the end we could see a partial shooting star followed by a bearish engulfing. This brought a halt in the hourly time frame. Looking at the +ve divergance in hourly 9 RSI chart, this halt many not be a very deep one. It might just be a time correction for all the averages to catch up. Also for the 9 RSI to cool off a bit before the next move.

Gann date - Yesterday happens to be the 25th day of the down move from the top. It is +/- 1 day from 26 which is half of 52, an important Gann number. This gives more weight to this turning. This might be the end of 4th wave as seen in the daily chart.

 

Fraud detection

Notes from 8iholdings.com investment division update int
on the topic fraud detection is very interesting. Need to keep an eye on these aspects while analysing the company.

Learning’s from Berkshire Hathway annual letter 1982

Warren Buffett in his 1982 letter to investors, talking about two of his managers Phil Liesche and Ben Rosner, he wrote –

Both Ben and Phil ran their businesses for Berkshire with every bit of the care and drive that they would have exhibited had they personally owned 100% of these businesses. No rules were necessary to enforce or even encourage this attitude; it was embedded in the character of these men long before we came on the scene. Their good character became our good fortune. If we can continue to attract managers with the qualities of Ben and Phil, you need not worry about Berkshire’s future.

The lesson for an investor is that in stock market, you’re not just in the business of finding good businesses. Your real job is to find people who are running good businesses. That brings good fortune.