Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Nifty intra day update 23-03-2016

Nifty intra day update:
Nifty seems to be doing a FLAT correction from
7713-7644 = a
7644-7727 = b
7727-76xx = c

This view gets negated with a move above 7727 or a deep correction beyond 7540.

I'm planning to take a long position
1. A move past 7730 OR
2. Near 7640 with 20 points SL.

Nifty spot 5 min chart that I'm tracking:

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Nifty 22-03-2016

Today I exited the position that I have taken yesteday @ the break of the channel (upper line). The idea was that 5 minor Elliott waves were observed clearly and the next leg will be a correction, once the correction is complete then re-enter the trade. Although my exit point was not correct, it should have been near the target 7713, the circled area instead of the actual exit 7679 as marked in the chart.

I was not able to enter the long position as marked in the chart. Now again to enter the long I have to wait for a minor correction and once it completes I'll observe the depth of the correction and then take a call either to enter the long or wait or to re-look into the situation and consider a short. This can be done during the market tomorrow.

Nifty 5 min chart:


Nifty 21-03-2016

Trend was up as NS (Nifty Spot) was above DHema. NS made a high in the morning near 7662 and corrected in an a-b-c form within a channel. Around 1:45pm market completed the correction and started the move up. The whole thing appears like the impulse with 1-2-3-4 are done and 5th is pending. The complete move is started from 7480 area. If wave 5 = wave 1 then this may move up to 7627 + (7566-7480) = 7713.

I have entered the trade near 7651 after the NS broke the line connecting the top of 3rd wave and the top of wave 'b'. Ideally I should have entered near the channel bottom near 7630 area with a smaller stop loss. This should have allowed me to take higher quantity compared to my actual entry point where my SL has to be big. Hence this reduced the number of quantity that I could buy.

This is in continuation with the weekend post "How not to trade"

Nifty 5 min chart :


It is observed that at the end of the day the target for the 5th was achieved. Hence the trade should have been closed. However the stop loss was on trailing basis and market has not yet come down from the top before the close. Hence the trade was not closed. Long is carry forward to the next day. Elliott wave observation perspective this is not a wise move as the 5th was over unless it is going to be sub-dividing. (the bigger 3rd wave is still on, if this minor 5 waves are done, then at the maximum the correction might go near 80 points - bigger than the two corrections which are part of the just concluded 5 waves 40 & 35. )

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Biocon 18-03-2016

Biocon broke the upper trend line as observed a month ago and moved up in 5 waves to get reflected from the reflection point. Now it is making a correction. Once this correction ends, it may move up again. Will that be 3rd wave? Let us wait and watch.