Nifty 22-11-2016 EOD analysis

Nifty opened above the resistance zone 7960 and moved swiftly towards the next resistance zone 8020  -(1). There it found selling pressure and reversed downwards - (2). It moved through the support zone 7860 and moved to 7948 where there is another support zone -(3). Moved up to the support turned resistance zone 7960 -(4) and again moved down. Again found support near 7940 and moved up. - (5)

All the (no.) are the possible trade signals. I could make use of only (1) , (3) & (5). However due to poor trade management (3) & (5) resulted in scrapping of the trades. Slightly better than yesterday!

Nifty 3 min chart:

Golden rule for trading

Golden rule for trading is:
Feed the stop loss order into the system immediately when the initial trade is made. This help to take away the emotionally driven subjectivity in analysis.

This will prevent any major capital erosion from the losses. As far as I have seen this is one of the best money management aspect in any trading. Before entering the trading itself one will know the maximum loss from that trade. If you are not comfortable with  such a loss either reduce the quantity or skip that trade.

Nifty 22-11-2016 Intra day

Nifty opened above the resistance levels created in yesterdays trade. There were no other reliable resistance levels until 8020, hence it gave a comfortable long entry at the opening.

Nifty 1 min chart:

Watch out for the resistance near 8020 zone. It may retrace back to 7980 again. That is a support zone, if supports then again it will go up at least towards 8020.

Nifty 21-11-2016 EOD

Nifty opened at the Big Round Number 8100 and swiftly moved down giving an opportunity to short. This found a minor support near the 8040 and moved up till 8060.Enter the long but the entry method was not right (will elaborate this later on in a different note). This was finding new short entry at the resistance zone and again an opportunity to short at the bearish engulfing candle (in the 1 min chart). Could not take this entry.

Further on all Swing Low and Swing High where actually the trade initiating opportunities but were not taken. So this is a clear indication for me to fine tune my entry strategy!

Nifty 3 min chart:

Nifty 1 min chart:

Nifty 21-11-2016 Intra day

Nifty seems to have given an opportunity to enter long at the bottom of the day. It tried to break the support zone marked in green color. However market swiftly reversed from this level and shown a breakout failure. It is currently heading towards the next resistance level. Let us see how it plays out.

Nifty 1 min chart:

Nifty EOD analysis 18-11-2016

Week	Open	High	Low	Close	Hi EMA	Lo EMA	Trend
7-Nov-16	8535.75	8598.1	8003	8309.9	8686.29	8339.34	Down
15-Nov-16	8284.85	8287	8048.4	8065.4	8553.19	8242.37	Down
Day
17-Nov-16	8105.10	8150.95	8060.40	8087.50	8290.4	8159.09	Down
18-Nov-16	8097.55	8128.75	8048.40	8065.40	8236.52	8122.19	Down
Date & Hour
18/11/2016 15:00:00 PM	8092.30	8100.20	8061.15	8074.55	8110.36	8072.13	Down
18/11/2016 16:00:00 PM	8074.95	8080.65	8064.30	8065.40	8100.46	8069.52	Down

Market opened at the resistance zone and went down swiftly breaking the earlier swing low. However it could not generate enough selling pressure and quickly reversed. We can see a long tailed hammer formation in the 3 min candle chart. On the way up, it found multiple resistances but formed higher high and higher low formations. Again found resistance near the 8120 zone and reached the support zone as shown in the 3 min chart.

Weekly chart:

Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

3 Min chart (trading time frame):

1 min chart to fine tune the entry & exit:

Elliott wave counting of this up move from the low seems to be like a 1-2 with 1 being a leading diagonal. 2 retraced a major portion of the up move.

Following were the opportunities for initiating trading:

1.       At the opening, resistance zone & breaking down -  short ( not taken – not prepared)

2.       Breakout failure of the support and then pull back – Long (not taken – not prepared)

3.       Once visited 8100 and the next pull back – Long (not taken – not prepared)

4.       Breaking of the resistance 8100 – Long (taken but trade was poorly managed, not sold @ the break out failure of the resistance @ 8120)

5.       Break out failure @ 8120 – Short (Not taken – not prepared, not monitoring the chart)

6.       Support near 8060 zone – square off (not taken – not prepared)

Nifty 10-11-2016 EOD analysis

Nifty seems to have completed two segments of up move from the low reached on Wednesday morning. This can be viewed as either a-b-c or 1-2-(i)-? according to Elliott wave analysis.

Following is the 5 min chart of Nifty with Elliott Wave labels.

8521  8497 … is 38%-50% retrace of the last rise from …… 8396 to 8598
80% is – 8436
If strength to return again, it should be around 8521  8497
Weakness gets confirmed Below 8497 OR 8436

Nifty hourly chart 08-11-2016

USP - United Spirits Limited seems to be in the final leg of the 5 wave down move

USL (earlier noted here) completed 4th wave up move and is in its 5th wave of the down move. This 5 waves may be noted as wave 'A' of the larger correction. This may find support near 1985-1800 range. This could be a very good range to buy this for the corrective move up in the form of wave 'B'. Further it may correct the entire down move from 4082 which started from March 2015 taking over 20 months. This corrective move may go towards 2800 to 3300 taking over 1 to 2 years.

USP Elliott Wave on a daily chart:

Nifty 07-11-2016

Daily Nifty chart

It appears like A,B of the correction from the peak 8963 is complete. B was a flat correction. This signifies that the impending C is going to be a strong down move. Breaking down the C shows that it has completed 1&2 and 3 is in progress, or it is almost done at the low of Friday with the move between 138.2% 161.8% 8376. Now we can expect the 4th wave to move up. It should not break the low of the 1st wave at 8550.25 which will invalidate this wave count.

Further on 4th wave can take anywhere between 3 -4 days to complete. (is that a coincident that 3 days from now is wednesday when the US election results are out?) Then a further dip for the completion of 5th wave may be on cards.

--<<8321-8342 << 8502 >> 8545-8555 >> 8604++

C wave in the daily chart:

Nifty - Piercing Pattern

Nifty on 17th October 2016 at 15:30 has formed a piercing pattern. Following this on 18th Nifty opened gap up, and continued upward journey.

This continued for 9 consecutive candles of positive closing. At the end we could see a partial shooting star followed by a bearish engulfing. This brought a halt in the hourly time frame. Looking at the +ve divergance in hourly 9 RSI chart, this halt many not be a very deep one. It might just be a time correction for all the averages to catch up. Also for the 9 RSI to cool off a bit before the next move.

Gann date - Yesterday happens to be the 25th day of the down move from the top. It is +/- 1 day from 26 which is half of 52, an important Gann number. This gives more weight to this turning. This might be the end of 4th wave as seen in the daily chart.

 

Fraud detection

Notes from 8iholdings.com investment division update int
on the topic fraud detection is very interesting. Need to keep an eye on these aspects while analysing the company.

Learning’s from Berkshire Hathway annual letter 1982

Warren Buffett in his 1982 letter to investors, talking about two of his managers Phil Liesche and Ben Rosner, he wrote –

Both Ben and Phil ran their businesses for Berkshire with every bit of the care and drive that they would have exhibited had they personally owned 100% of these businesses. No rules were necessary to enforce or even encourage this attitude; it was embedded in the character of these men long before we came on the scene. Their good character became our good fortune. If we can continue to attract managers with the qualities of Ben and Phil, you need not worry about Berkshire’s future.

The lesson for an investor is that in stock market, you’re not just in the business of finding good businesses. Your real job is to find people who are running good businesses. That brings good fortune.