Nifty Price acction 01-03-2017

There are basically 3 possibilities from here for Thursday's move:
1. Move down till yesterday's price congestion zone bottom and them move up
2. Move up till PDH and then a weak PB and then BO
3. BO and a weak PB => BPB

The up move from the low of Tuseday was very strong yesterday morning. The subsequent sideways move till the afternoon was very weak. Again the subsequent up move was very strong and the end of the day down move or the last two candles were still weak. Hence option 2 and 3 are the most preferred options.

Will observe the price candle by candle in TTF and see which of the path market takes. Or will it take a completely different path?

Nifty Price action 28-02-2017

Nifty expectation for 01-03-2017

30 min chart:

Nifty - 14-02-2017 Price Action

Identifying Strength and weakness for price action trading:

Why is this important for price action trader? It is simply because price action trader is trying to trade in the direction of strength or trading in the direction of fading the weakness.

A simple trick that we will use for identifying strength and weakness is to draw a line from the starting of the swing to the end of the swing. Do the same for the move in the opposite direction as well. Now observe the slope of the line in both directions. The steeper the line stronger the trend. Low gradient of the line indicates the weakness in price in that direction.

One may be wondering how to find out the slope or gradient. It is done with the naked eye and using best judgement. No specific tools are required for this activity.

Let us consider the price action of Nifty 50 index for 14-02-2017 in HTF (30 min chart) & LTF (3 min chart) respectively:

30 min chart:

3 min chart:

 

I have color coded the strength using green line and weakness using red line.

We will use the HTF for reference and TTF for trading decisions. Based on this we will identify the trading opportunities.

How can we use this information for preparing for tomorrow?

Well we will use the currently available information to anticipate future moves and prepare for an eventuality where

1.        Market moves as anticipated
2.        Market moves in opposite direction

In both the case we will be ready with our S/R levels. Further during the live market we will again observe the developing strength and weakness. Also using the S/R and swing high/low we will be ready to take the trade.

Nifty 13-02-2017 price action

Nifty in the early morning move was a strong down move. Followed by weak up move which had multiple bounces.

Goal of the trade is to trade in the direction of the strength or fade the weakness.

So in this case  the ideal thing to do was to sell near 8813 NS around 10:18 am.

Price action - Nifty - 23-01-2017

Today Nifty gave an opportunity to go long at the opening as shown by the green arrow.
An opportunity to short as shown by the red arrow.
Again an opportunity to go long as shown by the second green arrow.

Nifty 22-11-2016 EOD analysis

Nifty opened above the resistance zone 7960 and moved swiftly towards the next resistance zone 8020  -(1). There it found selling pressure and reversed downwards - (2). It moved through the support zone 7860 and moved to 7948 where there is another support zone -(3). Moved up to the support turned resistance zone 7960 -(4) and again moved down. Again found support near 7940 and moved up. - (5)

All the (no.) are the possible trade signals. I could make use of only (1) , (3) & (5). However due to poor trade management (3) & (5) resulted in scrapping of the trades. Slightly better than yesterday!

Nifty 3 min chart:

Nifty 22-11-2016 Intra day

Nifty opened above the resistance levels created in yesterdays trade. There were no other reliable resistance levels until 8020, hence it gave a comfortable long entry at the opening.

Nifty 1 min chart:

Watch out for the resistance near 8020 zone. It may retrace back to 7980 again. That is a support zone, if supports then again it will go up at least towards 8020.

Nifty 21-11-2016 EOD

Nifty opened at the Big Round Number 8100 and swiftly moved down giving an opportunity to short. This found a minor support near the 8040 and moved up till 8060.Enter the long but the entry method was not right (will elaborate this later on in a different note). This was finding new short entry at the resistance zone and again an opportunity to short at the bearish engulfing candle (in the 1 min chart). Could not take this entry.

Further on all Swing Low and Swing High where actually the trade initiating opportunities but were not taken. So this is a clear indication for me to fine tune my entry strategy!

Nifty 3 min chart:

Nifty 1 min chart:

Nifty 21-11-2016 Intra day

Nifty seems to have given an opportunity to enter long at the bottom of the day. It tried to break the support zone marked in green color. However market swiftly reversed from this level and shown a breakout failure. It is currently heading towards the next resistance level. Let us see how it plays out.

Nifty 1 min chart:

Nifty EOD analysis 18-11-2016

Week	Open	High	Low	Close	Hi EMA	Lo EMA	Trend
7-Nov-16	8535.75	8598.1	8003	8309.9	8686.29	8339.34	Down
15-Nov-16	8284.85	8287	8048.4	8065.4	8553.19	8242.37	Down
Day
17-Nov-16	8105.10	8150.95	8060.40	8087.50	8290.4	8159.09	Down
18-Nov-16	8097.55	8128.75	8048.40	8065.40	8236.52	8122.19	Down
Date & Hour
18/11/2016 15:00:00 PM	8092.30	8100.20	8061.15	8074.55	8110.36	8072.13	Down
18/11/2016 16:00:00 PM	8074.95	8080.65	8064.30	8065.40	8100.46	8069.52	Down

Market opened at the resistance zone and went down swiftly breaking the earlier swing low. However it could not generate enough selling pressure and quickly reversed. We can see a long tailed hammer formation in the 3 min candle chart. On the way up, it found multiple resistances but formed higher high and higher low formations. Again found resistance near the 8120 zone and reached the support zone as shown in the 3 min chart.

Weekly chart:

Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

3 Min chart (trading time frame):

1 min chart to fine tune the entry & exit:

Elliott wave counting of this up move from the low seems to be like a 1-2 with 1 being a leading diagonal. 2 retraced a major portion of the up move.

Following were the opportunities for initiating trading:

1.       At the opening, resistance zone & breaking down -  short ( not taken – not prepared)

2.       Breakout failure of the support and then pull back – Long (not taken – not prepared)

3.       Once visited 8100 and the next pull back – Long (not taken – not prepared)

4.       Breaking of the resistance 8100 – Long (taken but trade was poorly managed, not sold @ the break out failure of the resistance @ 8120)

5.       Break out failure @ 8120 – Short (Not taken – not prepared, not monitoring the chart)

6.       Support near 8060 zone – square off (not taken – not prepared)