Showing posts with label Behaviour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Behaviour. Show all posts

Friday, August 26, 2016

The Halo Effect:

An article by JASON ZWEIG

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In both cases, what psychologists have christened the "halo effect" was at work. In this quirk of the human mind, one powerful impression spills over onto our other judgments of a situation. The effect was first documented in the U.S. Army decades ago, when soldiers who earned high scores from commanders for one quality (such as neatness) also got high marks for entirely unrelated qualities (such as loyalty and physical strength).
Halos can be cast by many aspects of a company. Consumers who know a firm is highly profitable are more likely to believe its products are high-quality and its advertising honest. That helps build loyalty among customers, making companies more resistant to competition. And if you love a company's products, it is natural to conclude that it has superior management, too. 
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He goes on to write the following to overcome halo effect while analysing a business/stock:
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You can adapt a procedure described by the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman—who is widely admired for his insights into decision-making—in his forthcoming book, "Thinking, Fast and Slow." Start by identifying a handful of objective factors that you believe can predict superior returns. You might, say, include low debt as a percentage of total capital, stable earnings growth, high return on equity, low price relative to earnings and a history of raising prices without losing customers.
For any prospective investment, rate each of these financial factors on an identical scale—say, from 0 at the bottom to 5 at the top. Then add a final, subjective factor: your overall intuitive impression of each company and its management, rating them on the same scale. Finally, total all the scores and divide by the number of factors; the company with the highest average is the one you should favor.
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Detailed article can be read here.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Loss aversion

Loss aversion also explains the behaviour of gamblers (and day traders and even stock market investors) who become risk seeking immediately after experiencing a string of losses. They will do almost anything just to “get back in the game.”

This tendency almost all the times causes traders to taken undue risk interms of :
1. Taking a trade which has a very poor setup.
2. Risking more capital than their system allow them.

As a result of these the trader will end up making further losses. This is a vicious circle. Sure recipe for disaster. A trader or an investor need to identify these tendencies and should have strict self imposed rules to resist themselves from doing any of these. That is the only way to create wealth and preserve it.