Sunday, November 6, 2016

USP - United Spirits Limited seems to be in the final leg of the 5 wave down move

USL (earlier noted here) completed 4th wave up move and is in its 5th wave of the down move. This 5 waves may be noted as wave 'A' of the larger correction. This may find support near 1985-1800 range. This could be a very good range to buy this for the corrective move up in the form of wave 'B'. Further it may correct the entire down move from 4082 which started from March 2015 taking over 20 months. This corrective move may go towards 2800 to 3300 taking over 1 to 2 years.

USP Elliott Wave on a daily chart:


Nifty 07-11-2016

Daily Nifty chart


It appears like A,B of the correction from the peak 8963 is complete. B was a flat correction. This signifies that the impending C is going to be a strong down move. Breaking down the C shows that it has completed 1&2 and 3 is in progress, or it is almost done at the low of Friday with the move between 138.2% 161.8% 8376. Now we can expect the 4th wave to move up. It should not break the low of the 1st wave at 8550.25 which will invalidate this wave count.

Further on 4th wave can take anywhere between 3 -4 days to complete. (is that a coincident that 3 days from now is wednesday when the US election results are out?) Then a further dip for the completion of 5th wave may be on cards.

--<<8321-8342 << 8502 >> 8545-8555 >> 8604++

C wave in the daily chart:

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Nifty - Piercing Pattern

Nifty on 17th October 2016 at 15:30 has formed a piercing pattern. Following this on 18th Nifty opened gap up, and continued upward journey.





This continued for 9 consecutive candles of positive closing. At the end we could see a partial shooting star followed by a bearish engulfing. This brought a halt in the hourly time frame. Looking at the +ve divergance in hourly 9 RSI chart, this halt many not be a very deep one. It might just be a time correction for all the averages to catch up. Also for the 9 RSI to cool off a bit before the next move.





Gann date - Yesterday happens to be the 25th day of the down move from the top. It is +/- 1 day from 26 which is half of 52, an important Gann number. This gives more weight to this turning. This might be the end of 4th wave as seen in the daily chart.
 

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Fraud detection

Notes from 8iholdings.com investment division update int
on the topic fraud detection is very interesting. Need to keep an eye on these aspects while analysing the company.










Monday, August 29, 2016

Learning’s from Berkshire Hathway annual letter 1982

Warren Buffett in his 1982 letter to investors, talking about two of his managers Phil Liesche and Ben Rosner, he wrote –
Both Ben and Phil ran their businesses for Berkshire with every bit of the care and drive that they would have exhibited had they personally owned 100% of these businesses. No rules were necessary to enforce or even encourage this attitude; it was embedded in the character of these men long before we came on the scene. Their good character became our good fortune. If we can continue to attract managers with the qualities of Ben and Phil, you need not worry about Berkshire’s future.
The lesson for an investor is that in stock market, you’re not just in the business of finding good businesses. Your real job is to find people who are running good businesses. That brings good fortune.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Lupin - what the badshah of dala street, Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala did in FY 2016

We all know that Indian Warren Buffett, Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has a major investment in the Lupin. So I was curious to check whether he appears in the top 10 investors list. I took the annual report of Lupin for financial year 2016 and checked the section 'Shareholding pattern of top 10 shareholders" on page 93, there his name appears at the top holder. Next thing that I did was to glance at a page long transaction list of his trades.

My curiosity lead me to see what happens when Rakesh Jhunjhunwala buy or sell (small quantity) of his holdings in the market. Will he buy exactly at bottoms and sell at the peaks? Or he is also like any of us who will buy at the top and sell at the bottom? Or it is just random.

So I took all his trades from the annual report and plotted them on the price chart. Left hand axes represent the price while the right hand represented the quantity of his trade. Stars appearing above the Red horizontal line are the buy and below the line are the sells.




Now the analysis and interpretation of this .... well I'll leave it to you.

If anyone needs the data in a excel sheet then you can let me know and I can share the same.